December 2017 Statistical Analysis

Hello readers and welcome to 2018!  Here are my stats for the month of December and cumulatively from Sept 1 through EoY:

Overall, I went 191 W 143 L in the month of December, for a 57% win pct.  I went 72 W 80 L vs Meta decks (47%).  46% of the decks I faced in December were meta decks.  The ratio of meta decks was much higher until around the middle of the month (Memphis) – it hit its high of 58% on the 12th when I actually faced 21 meta decks in 24 matches.

YTD, I’ve won 55% of 1396 matches, 44% against 590 meta decks, and I see meta decks 42% of the time on PTCGO.

Here are the Pokemon that did best (and worst) against me in December (minimum six matches):

And the most common Pokemon I saw in December:

YTD Pokemon that have fared best and worst against me:

YTD most common Pokemon:

Special Energy

Overall, in December 60% of decks I faced ran SPE, and I won 62% of the time against decks that did not run SPE:

Against meta decks, 65% of the time in December they ran SPE (66% YTD). This was significantly down from November when meta decks against me ran SPE 75% of the time. I beat meta decks that did not run SPE 55% of the time in December (51% YTD), and I only beat meta decks 43% of the time that they carried SPE in December (40% YTD).

Advantage

Overall in December, I had the advantage 37% of the time, my opponent had it 36% of the time, and neither of us had it 27% of the time.  YTD, the Neither category dropped a little and the other two categories picked up the slack.

I won 65% of the matches where I had the advantage, 55% where Neither of us had advantage, and 51% of the time when the opponent had the advantage.

Against meta decks in December, I had the advantage 28% of the time, Neither of us had the advantage 27% of the time, and my opponent had the advantage 45% of the time.  I won 60% of the matches where I had the advantage, 41% of the matches where neither of us had the advantage, and 43% of the time when my opponent had the advantage.

Abilities

Overall in December, I faced only 30 decks that did not run a Pokemon with an ability.  This was about 9% of the decks I faced.  I won 25 of these 30 matches (83%).  I won 55% of the matches where my opponent played a Pokemon with at least one ability.


Against meta decks, in only 3 of the 152 matches I played did my opponent fail to field at least one Pokemon with an ability (the new Weavile from Utra Prism is salivating at the thought of that statistic). Because I actually went 1 W 2 L in those three matches, my win pct. was actually a tick higher against meta decks with abilities than those without.

Hammers

Overall in December, only ten percent of my opponents teched hammers into their decks.  I won about the same (56%) whether they ran hammers or not, but actually slightly better (1%) against those decks that didn’t run hammers this month.  That’s actually counter to the YTD tendency which has always been to do better against decks that run hammers.

Against meta decks, 92% of my opponents did not run hammers. I won 50% of the games where they teched in hammers and 47% of the matches that they didn’t. This is somewhat consistent with YTD, but the gap between win and loss percentage narrowed quite a bit.

Big Picture Points

Well, if you made it this far, here are some of the big picture points I’m taking away from this:

  • It’s no wonder I did so well with Golisopod GX Garbodor BKP.  It does pretty much better against me than any other deck.
  • Maybe Espeon GX isn’t quite as finished as I thought it was.  I have not been identifying it as a meta Pokemon… maybe that’s a mistake on my part.
  • I do think the SPE craze will subside with Ultra Prism.  Metal decks won’t run it, and Volcanion won’t run it either.  I think we’ll see SPE fall back to normal levels.
  • I looked at those three matches where there were no abilities, and I’m sure I got donked in both matches I lost.  That means that virtually every meta deck is running a Pokemon with an ability.
  • As the amount of SPE decrease, there will obviously be a direct correlation in the amount of hammers out there.