Hello all – first of all, let me say that FayId gave a great run down of what’s probably going to show up at Collinsville in the comments section of the article “Rubbing the Crystal Ball” I posted the other day. I HIGHLY recommend you check it out… we’re getting such good comments from these articles I LOVE LOVE LOVE the discussion and just absorb every word.
So it will come as no surprise to anyone who has ever read this site that I am taking Golisopod Garbodor to Collinsville. I had to order my cards last week, and I just couldn’t get comfortable with anything out of Ultra Prism. And I really wanted to take a new deck, not just because it’s new, but because a new deck has won the first tournament that it became standard legal in for the past three expansions: Seattle in May, worlds in August, and London in November. And I have little doubt that Deciplume or Lurantis Decidueye would have won in Anaheim a year ago this week when the first SUM expansion became Standard legal had more players actually used GX cards.
So keeping that in mind, here is the deck that I think will win it all this weekend:
- Metalcrozma – I know first hand there are a couple of lists out there – with and without Magnezone – that will do well in Collinsville. This deck is big and bad and has a clear pathway to victory in every matchup except Volcanion.
That’s it, Metalcrozma will win Collinsville. The pattern will continue, a new deck will win it all, and these are the only two I think can do it. Here’s why I think the rest will falter:
- Glaceon GX – I’m guessing it will be a Glaceon Metalcrozma final, with Glaceon losing because of weakness. This is another fill in the blank as to what the best list to complement it will be (I know it’s NOT Greninja!), but again if you win 80% of half of your games and 50% of the other half, you’re going to do alright. And you know somebody is going to get lucky and go first and start Eevee every time. And everything they’re complementing Glaceon with is NOT Metal weak, so it could be insulated against the Metalcrozma matchup.
- Buzz-roc-ark – Okay if it’s not a new deck, one these Buzzwole, Zoroark, Lycanroc variants will win.
- Tordozorovoir – Sorry too much Metal. Also, how many people are going to get their Espeon EX’s out of their binders after seeing Tord’s list skip Kirlia? No, that was a one time let’s take some chances it’s a small tournament I think we can get away with this list.
- Leafeon GX – Three words: Cyrus, Parallel, Volcanion.
- Volcanion – if someone actually runs this with the new Turtonator, I’ll definitely say they could win it all. (Nobody will run this with the new Turtonator.) But someone will hit Leafeons and Metalcrozma all day 1 and make it smooth sailing into day 2… where they’ll lose their first round match on day 2 to Glaceon GX.
- Garchomp – again the last Stage 2 deck to win anything was Gardevoir GX. Garchomp < Gardevoir GX. Garchomp <> Day 2. Ability lock, Cyrus, Parallel, and it’s just WAY too many evolutions.
- Empoleon – many of the same issues as Garchomp. One thing it does have going for it is that it’s weak to Lightning and there won’t be much Pachirisu Raichu running around.
- Pachirisu Raichu GX – could be the WOW didn’t see that coming of the tournament. I’ve played this a couple of times and it has potential. It can hit for a ton of damage, and it is COMPLETELY immune to ability lock. Unfortunately, it’s weak to Fighting, susceptible to Cyrus and Parallel, and it’s weak to Fighting.
- BKP Garbodor variants – Garbotoxin will win a number of matches by itself. There’s not a deck listed here (except Raichu) that doesn’t suffer from ability lock, and people still aren’t running more than 1 or 2 Leaf Blowers.
- Buluvolt – it’s never won anything anywhere and it’s been a thing (virtually the exact same thing) for ten months now. At some point you’ve got to poop or get off the pot. It’s a good deck, it suffers some from ability lock, but has no weakness and doesn’t brick too often. I just don’t really like playing it, it’s just kind of boring to me. But it will win matches and it’s not a bad call right now, unless you think there’ll be a ton of ability lock out there, but I don’t think there will be any Greninja (Leafeon, Golisopod, and Tapu Bulu and you think anybody’s going to play the Frogs?) and not much more Garbotoxin.
- Psychic Toolbox – we’ll give a shout out to Keemonto’s Purple Pokemon Eaters. This looks like a deck that could do some damage – certainly, every Buzzwole player will need a change of underwear after you plop down a couple of those Psychic Pokemon. Many people are teching in Mewtwo (EVO 51), so that is not good for Mewtwo GX, and you’re relying on a come from behind strategy, which sometimes is good, but can lead to losses because you have much less margin for error. Still, it’s not bad and will win some matches.
So that’s about it. Now that I’ve covered pretty much everything, I’m sure something that’s NOT listed here will win the whole thing at Collinsville. I just hope I don’t see much Volcanion. It’s my hope that everyone is playing Garchomp – I’m 6 W 2 L against it with Golisodor, and I made major misplays in the two matches I lost.
But I’m hopeful, I’ve gone on good winning streaks over the past few days, I’m back over 50%, and, most importantly, 9 W 4 L against my last 13 meta decks, with 3 of the 4 losses coming to Volcanion decks and the other loss to Buzzroc. Although I’m not exactly sure what “meta” means right now, I’m certain that we’ll all have a really good idea of what that means after Sunday.
So here’s what it looks like when you win three tournaments and come in second in another. Yeah, I won 22 UP packs tonight. My son and I are going to have a BLAST opening them tomorrow! I added some comments and the stats around this AMAZING win streak I’m on below.