January 2018 Statistical Analysis

Hello readers it’s that time again – here are my stats for January as well as for YTD since rotation.

YTD Overall 942 W, 762 L, 55%

YTD vs Meta 297 W, 373 L, 44%

Jan Overall 178 W, 130 L, 58%

Jan vs Meta 39 W, 41 L, 49%

I only saw meta decks 26% of the time on PTCGO this month.  I’m 100% certain that’s why I won so much more than usual.

I’m just going to give you the big picture notes up top, if you want to sift through all the details go ahead and knock yourself out.  I’m not super interested in using this data as the meta will change significantly on Friday, but there are still some things we can take out of this information.

  • Time to get out our Typhlosion decks. I’m calling it right now, Typhlosion wins Collinsville.
  • Decks without SPE that beat me in January:
    • Volcanion 5 W 11 L (Too bad Glaceon makes Volcanion unplayable post UP.)
    • Tapu Bulu 4 W 5 L
  • If I had the advantage, I usually won. And I was really feeling that as well towards the end of the month.  Tons of confidence when I had advantage.
  • Not doing Hammers or Abilities since so few meta decks were without abilities or ran hammers.
  • My best decks overall this month:
    • Golisodor 41 W 17 L, 71%
    • Regigigas Hoopa 27 W, 13 L, 68%
    • Buzzroc 8 W, 4 L, 67%
    • Zororoc 13 W, 7 L, 65%
    • Volcanion 16 W, 9 L, 64%
  • My best decks against the meta in January:
    • Regigigas Hoopa 14 W, 6 L, 70%
    • Golisodor 7 W, 5 L, 58%

Here’s how Pokemon have done against me YTD:

And here’s how they did against me in January:

The most common Pokemon I’ve seen YTD:

And the most common Pokemon I saw in January:

Special Energy

Advantage

11 comments

  1. Dude, this is really good data. It must be incredibly time consuming to record all of that- do you do it in-match, or do you record ’em and run through them later? Have you run any statistical analyses on your data looking for patterns? Interesting stuff regardless. Thanks for your work!

  2. Hey Keemonto,

    Thanks and welcome to the site.

    I usually record my data in game while my opponent is playing. I don’t record matches, although that’s a really good idea as that’s a good way to learn from your losses. I’ve got a number of statistical analyses, most of them in this article, but I do also have a really good study on N and how it actually helps your opponent more than it hurts him.

    But thanks again for stopping by. Hopefully, these articles give you some food for thought.

    1. Thanks for the welcome!

      The N study sounds super interesting- I’ll look around for it.

      Also, not sure what your background is- I’m assuming data analysis is in there from your love of data, but that could totally be self-taught- but I was talking about crunching these numbers through a statistical analysis program like SPSS (you can do the calculations by hand but it takes longer) and pulling up some correlations and looking for statistical significance in trends. You have a whole lot of data, and that can be really fun for data mining, looking for interesting correlations and patterns and then seeing if they hold up over time.

    2. I can’t reply to the N article, but it was definitely interesting. I think a confound there is what you elude to at the end- your opponent often is forced to play N not because he wants to disrupt you, but because his hand is terrible and he wants to conserve resources in it, or possibly because its his only draw supporter and he’s providing himself with a 5-card increase in hand-size and you with a 1-2 card increase. Suboptimal, especially with Cynthia running around these days, but sometimes necessary.

      N is an interesting card for a study like that because it doesn’t -just- change your hand- it changes the opponent’s as well. So then the question isn’t just whether your hand improves at the end, it’s whether it improves -more- than the opponent’s did. That’s pretty impossible to know without a collaborator you’re playing against though, so I get why it wasn’t covered in the study.

      Again though, I’d be interested to see the study repeated now that Cynthia’s live, because I know that I personally run N, but I run more Cynthia than N and if I play N at all it’s specifically when he’ll get me more cards than he’ll get my opponent, and ideally he’s getting me cards and taking cards from my opponent.

      1. Hey dude! Just wanted to welcome you once more to the site, and here’s a bit of an early report on your build.

        Okay so here’s the decklist that you provided in Pokemon.com fashion, and for whatever reason I feel the need to show the results that I got from the 6 games I played because of two games in particular that really stood out, with their decklist below as you read on:

        ****** Pokémon Trading Card Game Deck List ******

        ##Pokémon – 16

        * 1 Drampa-GX GRI 142
        * 1 Lunala {*} UPR 62
        * 4 Mewtwo-GX SLG 39
        * 2 Shining Mew SLG 40
        * 1 Tapu Lele-GX GRI 137
        * 2 Trubbish BKP 56
        * 1 Trubbish GRI 50
        * 2 Garbodor GRI 51
        * 2 Garbodor BKP 57

        ##Trainer Cards – 30

        * 3 Professor Sycamore STS 114
        * 2 N FCO 105
        * 2 Choice Band GRI 121
        * 1 Professor Sycamore BKP 107
        * 3 Guzma BUS 115
        * 4 Ultra Ball SUM 135
        * 3 Cynthia UPR 119
        * 4 Float Stone BKT 137
        * 2 Field Blower GRI 125
        * 4 Max Elixir BKP 102
        * 2 Fighting Fury Belt BKP 99

        ##Energy – 14

        * 2 Double Colorless Energy SUM 136
        * 12 Psychic Energy BLW 109

        Total Cards – 60

        ****** Deck List Generated by the Pokémon TCG Online http://www.pokemon.com/TCGO ******
        Onto the games!

        Game 1: Against Greninja: Opponent conceded after turn 2 or three… Could’ve Tapu Stormed my active Mewtwo, but it might have been that he had some resources prized and would have fallen behind (that and Garb would have been detrimental without a doubt).

        2: Golisopod/Zoroark (Stand in): Not sure if he was running a budget build, but the strategy was there, the deck was there, Lele were there, but unfortunately he caught himself in a bad spot, lost momentum fast, and Trashvalanche creeped up on him. Decisive play was when he N’ed us down to 2 and 3 respectively. As soon as I Guzma’ed his Oranguru out to knock it out, he conceded (he had no way of getting out of this one). And granted I was the one that getting shredded up like cheddar (he should’ve won this bout).

        3: Turbo Lapras with White Kyurem and Dawn Wings: Good concept, bad, bad start for my opponent. He had a Lele start, and only a Lele. Me: Trubbish, Mew, Float stone, Mewtwo GX. Elixir hit, Legendary Guidance, Mewtwo at 3 attachments. Following turn, Opponent used Guzma onto Mewtwo, attacked. He knew he was gone, and I quickly Psystriked for game. (Which brings me to Lapras GX: such an underused card. And his decklist was surprisingly solid, to me at least)!

        ****** Pokémon Trading Card Game Deck List ******

        ##Pokémon – 9

        * 1 Oranguru SUM 113
        * 1 Dawn Wings Necrozma-GX UPR 143
        * 2 Tapu Lele-GX GRI 60
        * 4 Lapras-GX SUM 139
        * 1 White Kyurem FCO 21

        ##Trainer Cards – 39

        * 4 Aqua Patch GRI 119
        * 4 Ultra Ball DEX 102
        * 2 N DEX 96
        * 1 Switch SLG 67
        * 4 Professor Sycamore BKP 107
        * 1 Super Rod NVI 95
        * 2 Nest Ball SUM 123
        * 2 Cynthia UPR 119
        * 1 Field Blower GRI 125
        * 3 Guzma BUS 115
        * 4 Max Elixir BKP 102
        * 4 Choice Band GRI 121
        * 3 Float Stone BKT 137
        * 4 Professor Kukui SUM 128

        ##Energy – 12

        * 12 Water Energy 3

        Total Cards – 60

        ****** Deck List Generated by the Pokémon TCG Online http://www.pokemon.com/TCGO ******

        4: Honchkrow/Wobbufet: first unique mill deck I’ve seen in a very long time, and Ultra Prism based at that. He even had Prism Star Darkrai to keep me locked in sleep. So did I win? Absolutely. What happened? Mewtwo GX got put to sleep twice…I flipped two heads both times. And he milled himself. Here’s his decklist:

        ****** Pokémon Trading Card Game Deck List ******

        ##Pokémon – 15

        * 1 Darkrai {*} UPR 77
        * 2 Murkrow GRI 78
        * 2 Murkrow UPR 71
        * 3 Honchkrow UPR 72
        * 1 Mr. Mime GEN 52
        * 2 Tapu Lele-GX GRI 137
        * 4 Wobbuffet PHF 36

        ##Trainer Cards – 35

        * 2 Float Stone BKT 137
        * 1 Brigette BKT 161
        * 1 Captivating Poké Puff STS 99
        * 4 Crushing Hammer UPR 166
        * 1 Enhanced Hammer DEX 94
        * 2 Red Card XY 124
        * 1 Delinquent BKP 98
        * 1 Counter Catcher CIN 91
        * 3 Altar of the Moone GRI 117
        * 1 Parallel City BKT 145
        * 1 Brock’s Grit EVO 107
        * 4 Ultra Ball SUM 161
        * 2 Lusamine CIN 110
        * 1 Team Flare Grunt XY 129
        * 1 Team Skull Grunt SUM 149
        * 1 Team Rocket’s Handiwork FCO 124
        * 2 Cynthia UPR 119
        * 1 Pal Pad FLF 92
        * 1 Mars UPR 128
        * 3 Professor Sycamore STS 114
        * 1 Field Blower GRI 125

        ##Energy – 10

        * 8 Darkness Energy CL 94
        * 2 Counter Energy CIN 100

        Total Cards – 60

        ****** Deck List Generated by the Pokémon TCG Online http://www.pokemon.com/TCGO ******

        What really slowed the mill down was that he Delinquent-ed my hand and discarded the last card I held onto with Honchkrow. Since I was in top deck mode, I had no way of drawing into my cards fast enough to mill myself down before he did. And luck was on my side…crazy luck. Mike, you might like to have a go at his list when you have the time.

        5: Decidueye/Zoroark: I couldn’t keep float stones and Garbotoxin got up too late. First lost delivered to this deck and it was a frustrating one. I had a saving grace in Lunala Prism, but his build had Mewtwo from Evolutions, so one Guzma to my Trubbish on the board ended it all.

        6: Dusk Mane/Garb: Yes I actually took on this deck. Unfortunately he just couldn’t get the momentum that he needed going. I forgot to look at his list, but going by what I saw, I can assume that he wanted to Ability lock me while using Registeels Turbo Arm to attach energy to Dusk Mane each turn. However, Mewtwo GX broke through the first Dusk Mane with his Gx attack (alongside choice band), and the next couple of knock outs sealed the game. This game was also the first in which I encountered Cyrus used against me, but because I had a full bench line and could recover my energy and field if I so desired, I remained called throughout the match (if this was Sylveon with Cyrus, you would not have seen a review: just, NEXT.

        So far I can’t seem to pinpoint any real changes that should be made to the build…maybe adding Stretcher should you discard a Garb that you need, but surprisingly enough: I never ran out of energy to attach to my mons, which was a relief. Even more surprising was the fact that the energy acceleration from Mew and just attachments in general made more of an impact in most games than the ability lock, though that too helped me out a bit as well. It’s all preliminary, but I know you’re the one that can pilot this deck better than I can (it’s a work in progress for me to get used to, but it made me happy to see it keep my win streak alive for a time). Once Malamar comes in May, I’ll probably be looking into that Ultra Necrozma build with greater intent, but Mewtwo….he isn’t bad at all, and his 190 HP is a solid number to have on him: sure helped avoid some Cross-cut knockouts without a doubt.

  3. So I’ve just got to laugh a little here. I asked Juan a earlier today if he’d like to post a feature article. He hemmed and hawed a little bit… and then essentially wrote a feature article in his comment here.

    You’re alright Juan. Thanks for giving us this decklist review.

    So sounds like the deck got a little lucky, but the Psychic Toolbox here seems like a deck that will take advantage of your opponent if he can’t get out of the gate quickly. I’ll have to try this next week.

    Yeah I’ve seen a bit of a recurrence with Wobb, there have been a couple of videos floating around featuring Wobb stall deck. Fortunately, he doesn’t shut down Tapu Lele GX, just like he failed to shut down Hoopa EX. I’m far more concerned about Looker Lock, but even that seems to be a deck destined for ties.

    Thanks again for the review, Juan, and thanks to Keemonto for this deck which actually might be the best Psychic decklist out there.

    1. Oh my God XD Harvey I swear I did not expect that entire block of lettering to be the size of an article: Don’t even know how I get things typed out but low and behold: it happens.

      Again this might have been article worthy, but I’m literally the equivalent of a random Clone Trooper attempting to maneuver the Millennium Falcon without any prior knowledge of any sorts: Keemonto’s analysis of the deck draws on blood, sweat, and tears (pardon the dramatization).

      However if you guys would like to convert my comment into a featured article, feel free to do so (I just wanted to share it for the two deck lists I found that utilized Ultra Prism in a pretty bright way: shoot, best believe that Honchkrow deck would have given me grief if I was using Garchomp or even Hoopa/Raticate). And Lapras…things would have gotten ugly if I saw turn 1 Lapras up. Yikes.

      Best Psychic decklist out there? Debatable to an extent in the eyes of the public, but for Mewtwo fans: Absolutely! Basically, if Lunala GX can’t hold the fort to facilitate and support Mewtwo in this meta at this time, then a firm engine is in order and this deck does the trick. Though now I’m wondering if Nest Balls could find their way in here as well…

      Shoot. My keyboard hands went off again XD

      1. That’s the decklist I’m -constantly- tinkering with and honing. I love that deck. When it works it is incredibly hard to beat, so the trick is just continuously refining it to make it run more and more smoothly. Current version is:

        ****** Pokémon Trading Card Game Deck List ******

        ##Pokémon – 17

        * 1 Drampa-GX GRI 115
        * 1 Lunala {*} UPR 62
        * 4 Mewtwo-GX SLG 39
        * 2 Shining Mew SLG 40
        * 2 Tapu Lele-GX GRI 60
        * 3 Trubbish BKP 56
        * 2 Garbodor GRI 51
        * 2 Garbodor BKP 57

        ##Trainer Cards – 30

        * 4 Cynthia UPR 119
        * 2 Field Blower GRI 125
        * 3 Guzma BUS 115
        * 4 Max Elixir BKP 102
        * 2 Fighting Fury Belt BKP 99
        * 1 Lillie UPR 151
        * 1 N FCO 105
        * 2 Choice Band GRI 121
        * 3 Float Stone BKT 137
        * 4 Ultra Ball FCO 113
        * 4 Professor Sycamore PHF 101

        ##Energy – 13

        * 2 Double Colorless Energy NXD 92
        * 11 Psychic Energy 5

        Total Cards – 60

        ****** Deck List Generated by the Pokémon TCG Online http://www.pokemon.com/TCGO ******

        The changes there are a result of dead hands just filled with energy balanced with really needing a lot of energy, wanting just -one- more draw Supporter and more outs to them, and being super tired of N’ing my opponent into a larger hand. Lillie isn’t ideal, but I like her slightly better than N and her card art is top notch- I have the full-art from Ultra Prism lol

        Rescue Stretcher is a good idea, and could definitely help with Garbotoxin, especially if I ever run into that aggressive opponent who wants to take a shot at Garbodor. I also can see it being helpful in recovering a Trubbish or two.

        Mew’s fun, right? She’s only useful in Psychic, sure, but she’s crazy at energy acceleration. Love that card.

        Thanks for that detailed review Juan! I appreciate your work.

  4. I remembered what I saw Shining Mew with: Marshadow GX. I don’t know how good of an idea it is, but it’s bulkier than Mew EX or Mew from FAC.

    And it only has 1 N! : )

    1. One cool thing Mew’d have going for her there is she can load -any- kind of energy, so she can double-charge a Marshadow with Rainbow from the deck and he’ll take no damage from it. I tried Marshadow GX and Mew EX both as partners for Mewtwo at one time or another, but they’re just so frail, and they share the Psychic weakness, which makes them a rough tech in a Psychic deck.

      I could see that working out in a non-Psychic deck running Rainbows though- Shining Mew doesn’t -usually- care about losing 10 HP, and her ability to pull DCEs, Rainbows, Counter Energies, etc. from the deck and stick them on a Pokemon can be super handy, if less good than in a devoted Psychic deck.

      1. Absolutely: that night was the first time I saw Shining Mew put in work (it was pretty painful not pulling her from my Shining Legends packs last fall, but I’m glad my semi-collector side picked up 2 from trade).

        Marshadow hurts me the way Lunala GX does as well: such a potential filled mon, hindered by things that could have been avoided. All he needed was 20 more HP and he would have been solid. Strong mon, very strong, but frail nonetheless (Trust me: I tried to make him work). Now that I think about it….Necrozma and Tapu Lele would make for some crazy shenanigans alongside Shining Mew. And on an unrelated note: Why the thought of Leafeon/Mega Mewtwo Y creeped into my head I’ll never know. It just did. Looks good on paper, and de-evolution has died down as of late….still remember trying Diancie with Mega Mewtwo tho (I tried) XD

        And with the updates that you made, you might want to write an article on your deck sometime! As for myself, I believe I might end up doing one soon as well. Should be fun. Either way, good stuff through and through.

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