What’s the Magic Number?

I was looking again at the damage analysis I did the other day, and it occurred to me that there is probably a Magic Number that will OHKO a large number of the most common Pokemon you’ll find in the active position.  For example, Garchomp, Buzzwole, and Alolan Vulpix were the three Pokemon that attacked me the most, a combined total of 136 of the 1004 times I was attacked (13%).  Obviously, if you can do 150 damage, you’ll OHKO each of those Pokemon.  But is 150 the best number?

Here’s a chart on how many HP the Pokemon that attacked me actually had:

So you can see here that if you do 150 damage (unmodified, no weakness or resistance), you will actually only OHKO 37% of the Pokemon that are in the active position.  Even though the three most common attackers all had 150 HP or less, the majority of attackers have much more HP than that.  The median actually lands in the 180 HP range, so if there is a magic number, it would probably have to be 180.

However, looking at the damage analysis in its entirety, only 134 of the 1,004 attacks actually did 180 or more damage.  That means probably 87% of attacks were NOT OHKO’s!  Not that I’m telling you anything you don’t already know, but this has really become a two shot meta, and this definitely quantifies that.

One final thought, if you do want to OHKO 90% of the meta, you need to do 210 damage.  Good luck with that, however, as only 49 of the 1,004 attacks (5%) did 210 or more damage.

So what’s the magic number?  150?  180? 210? Or maybe 130 because then you’re guaranteed to almost certainly two shot every Pokemon in the game.