October Statistical Analysis

Hey guys here are my stats from October… not that they’ll be particularly relevant after tomorrow.  The meta significantly changes with Lost Thunder, but we can still probably learn something from last month’s data.

Overall, I went 154 W 132 L in 286 games (54%).  Much better than September, but I didn’t spend nearly as much time on Turtonator in October as I did in September.  I went 38 W 38 L against meta decks, 116 W 94 L against non meta (55%), and saw meta decks 27% of the time.  PTCGO continues its divergence from the meta, a trend I’m sure that will only continue to increase with Lost March.

I won 74% of the time when I had weakness advantage but only lost 44% of the time when I had weakness disadvantage.  I only had weakness disadvantage 14% of the time, but I only had the weakness advantage 12% of the time (I played 60 of the 286 games with Dragon types as my feature Pokemon – 21% of my games I could not have had weakness advantage).

Opponents are playing SPE 60% of the time – and I’m 83 W 87 L (49%) against decks with SPE.  I am 71 W 45 L against decks that don’t run SPE – 61%.  66% of meta decks SPE, and I’m only 42% (21 W 29 L) against them.  I am 17 W 9 L – 65%- against meta decks that don’t run SPE.  I think I need to start running E Hammers.

Opponents are playing hammers only 10% of the time.  I’m actually 12 W 16 L (43%) against decks with hammers.  That number drops to 22% (2 W 7 L) against meta decks.   12% of meta decks are running hammers.

I had the advantage 36% of the time last month, neither of us 30%, and my opponent had the advantage 34% of the time.  I won 52% of matches where I had the advantage, 59% where neither of us had the advantage, and 51% of the time when my opponent had the advantage.  My opponent had the advantage 45% of the time when facing meta decks.  I had the advantage only 30% of the time and neither of us had the advantage 25% of the time against meta decks.

This is a little weird: when I had the advantage against meta decks, I only won 43% of the time.  When my opponent had the advantage and was playing a meta deck, I won exactly half the time.  And when neither of us had the advantage, I won a whopping 58% of the time.  Hard to figure that one out – maybe there’s something wrong with their algorithm?  Again makes you wonder how advantage is determined… but nobody knows that.

Most common weaknesses:

Psychic 76

Fighting 67

Fire 55

Metal 41

Fairy 41

Grass 41

Water 20

Lightning 16

Dark 12

Dragon 0

Colorless 0

So the moral of the story here: I rarely see Pokemon that are weak to Dark.  Conversely, if you can put a deck together of Psychic, Fighting, and Fire attackers, you’re going to have the weakness advantage A LOT!

The most common types I faced:

Psychic 59

Fighting 50

Dark 43

Dragon 42

Water 40

Grass 34

Metal 28

Fairy 27

Fire 20

Lightning 14

Colorless 13

You want to avoid running Pokemon that are weak to Psychic and Fighting and Dark.  Lightning weakness is the best weakness to have right now.

Here are the most common Pokemon I came across last month:

It’s my guess that we’ll be seeing a LOT less of Garchomp starting today.

Here are the most common Pokemon and how often they beat me (minimum five appearances):

Solgaleo GX did really well against me last month as well.  One archetype I’m definitely going to look in to is the Solgaleo GX Fairy Ninetales GX deck that’s gotten some praise in early testing.

Necrozma GX – and the whole Squids archetype – only gets better after LOT.

So there are my stats from October, not sure how applicable they’ll be considering that LOT is going to significantly change the meta.  So happy expansion release day, good luck with your pulls!

One comment

  1. That’s a lot of stats! (And a lot of damage if we’re going for flex tape memes) I think this is gonna help me with the new meta, I need to pick up some rays! The thing is, I don’t know what to trade for them. I’ve tried pulling stuff from CES, but thats not where my coins are going since LTH just came out.

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